China publishes more auto data, faster, than any other market — and misreading it is the easiest mistake in this industry. Here is how the numbers fit together, and what actually predicts opportunity.

What the numbers mean

Three distinctions matter. Wholesale vs retail: most headline figures are wholesales — cars shipped to dealers, not sold to customers. Exports vs overseas sales: "exports" counts vehicles leaving China; "overseas sales/deliveries" (BYD's 792,256 H1 figure, for instance [Reuters/USNews]) includes cars built at overseas plants — an increasingly big gap as localisation spreads. Association vs customs: CAAM/CPCA industry data and customs statistics use different scopes and timings; they rarely match exactly.

Why it matters

Dealers and importers commit capital months ahead of demand. Reading wholesale spikes as retail demand, or China-port exports as market success, leads to over-ordering exactly when a market saturates — as Russia's inventory swings have repeatedly shown.

The five indicators that matter

1) Brand-level overseas deliveries, monthly — the cleanest demand proxy, published by each automaker in early-month reports. 2) Destination registrations — local licensing data beats any Chinese-side figure for your market. 3) Overseas plant output — signals which markets will get local pricing and supply priority. 4) Fuel-type mix of exports — ICE/PHEV/EV shares predict which products reach tariff-protected markets. 5) Ro-ro shipping capacity — car-carrier fleets and charter rates cap how fast volumes can move.

Impact on Chinese automakers

Data transparency is becoming a competitive tool: brands that report clean overseas numbers (BYD, Chery, Geely) build analyst and partner trust; those that blur domestic and export volumes invite skepticism precisely when they seek foreign dealers and capital.

What to watch next

Early-month delivery reports around the 1st-3rd; CAAM's monthly export release mid-month; and H1/H2 target revisions, which say more about real momentum than any single month. We track all of it in Data & Rankings and the daily briefing.